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Prediction for CME (2024-05-29T14:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-05-29T14:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/31200/-1
CME Note: There is no clear arrival signature observed for this CME at L1. Large, bright partial halo CME to east in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source of this CME is the X1.4 class flare from AR13697 with associated moving/opening field lines visible in SDO/AIA 193, 171, and GOES SUVI 284. Additionally, a thin filament ejecta was visible during the eruption as seen in GOES SUVI 304. Post-eruptive arcades followed the flare as seen in SDO/AIA 193 and 171.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-06-02T02:29Z (-10.42h, +12.49h)
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:

Time of Launch: 2024/05/29 14:46Z
Plane of Sky 1: 20:40Z; 31.5Rsun; ESE Direction
Plane of Sky 2: 04:00Z; 31.5Rsun; WSW Direction
POS Difference: 7:20
POS Midpoint: 00:20Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 9:34

Numeric View/Impact Type: 0
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~8.75
Travel Time: ~8.75 * 9:34 = 83:43

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2024-06-02T02:29Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 1 Hour
 - Travel Time Square Root: 50%

Notes:
Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 3/5


Forecast Creation Time: 2024/05/30 02:47Z

Lead Time: 71.65 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2024-05-30T02:50Z

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